Summary

Signs of economic weakness have led us to revise down our global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012 (at market exchange rates).

And risks to this forecast are skewed to the downside, coming from three different fronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis including financial contagion, ii) the possibility that the US falls back into recession, and iii) a hard landing in the emerging economies and China in particular. Each of these three scenarios could be sufficient to tip the world back into recession.

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