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ETC published Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies

ETC published Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies

The knock-out effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented in scale and duration, with global international travel falling by 74% in 2020, while the decline in Europe was of 70%. One of the key elements in tourism’s path to recovery will be an accurate prediction of future demand and consumer sentiment. ETC has today released a simple guide to the complex world of tourism forecasting for National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) and Destination Management Organisations (DMOs).

Accurate prediction of future tourist arrivals, overnights, expenditure, and other indicators remains essential for more effective business decisions, year over year planning, monitoring consumer satisfaction and benchmarking purposes. Tourism forecasting can also provide indications for implementing targeted marketing and promotional campaigns, managing tourist flows or addressing sustainability matters. These efforts will ultimately result in better decision-making, improved productivity and increased tourism satisfaction for both travellers and locals.

The primary goal of forecasting is to predict the future, which may seem an easier task when events are regular and follow simple patterns. However, in the travel and tourism sector, consumer demand can still be a difficult variable to predict provided the number of external factors that are involved (e.g. economic conditions, natural disasters, terror attacks, fuel prices, geopolitical environment, etc.).

ETC trusts this Handbook will provide NTOs and DMOs with the necessary guidance, practical tools and up-to-date techniques for effective tourism forecasting. The handbook is expected to encourage tourism organisations and individuals to engage in the forecasting processes, which may ultimately enhance an organisation’s strategic planning as well as support tourism recovery and sustainable development.

The handbook provides readers with:

  • An in-depth understanding of tourism forecasting, including its value, its advantages and limitations, as well as its implications for decision-making in tourism businesses.
  • An identification and analysis of forecasting methodologies and techniques, including guidance for their deployment, based on practical and explicit examples.
  • Several best-practice examples (case studies) used by NTOs/DMOs in the field of tourism forecasting.
  • Strategic recommendations on how to choose the appropriate forecasting methodology and its application.

Full handbook can be downloaded here

This Handbook was prepared by Inzights and Silverbullet Research for the European Travel Commission (ETC).