European Tourism 2021 – Trends & Prospects (Q1/2021)

OVER A YEAR INTO THE PANDEMIC: NOT GREAT, NOT TERRIBLE

Lockdowns have persisted into 2021 as Covid-19 infection rates surge in some countries despite the vaccination rollout. Prospects for the summer season are mixed. While Europe works to overcome hurdles relating to vaccine side effects and supply shortages, inoculation programmes are still expected to accelerate over the summer, bringing down Covid-19 cases and raising hopes of easing restrictions.

Data to January indicates an 85% plunge in international tourist arrivals to Europe[1], and travel demand is now expected to remain below its pre-pandemic trajectory until 2024[2]. On the other hand, domestic travel is leading the way, with volumes projected to reach 2019 levels in 2022. Travellers’ mood is upbeat for summer holidays spurred by the availability of a vaccine, with 56% of Europeans willing to travel by the end of August[3].

[1] UN World Tourism Barometer Volume 19 • Issue 2 • March 2021(UNWTO)

[2] Tourism Economics

[3] Monitoring Sentiment for Domestic and Intra-European Travel (Wave 6)