European tourism industry is navigating an era of rapid transformation shaped by global uncertainty, technological disruption, climate concerns and shifting socio-economic dynamics. In this evolving landscape, National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) must go beyond short-term planning to develop strategies that are resilient, forward-looking and adaptable to change.
In response to this need, the European Travel Commission (ETC) has undertaken a strategic foresight initiative to explore how scenario planning can support NTOs in anticipating and preparing for a range of plausible futures up to 2035. Developed through a collaborative process drawing on input from multidisciplinary experts, the report is the outcome of a study that aims to enhance the capacity of tourism bodies to anticipate change and make informed decisions. It presents key trends, scenario narratives and practical guidance for building future-ready strategies that remain robust across a range of future contexts.
An additional annex provides a detailed justification of the methodology underpinning the scenarios presented in the report, offering the full research foundation and rationale behind their development.
